Whose democracy in Iraq?

How the US behaves in Iraq during the coming weeks will determine whether the recent war will lead to any improvement of relations with the Arab and Muslim worlds

US and British forces won the war in Iraq; we will soon see whether they can win the peace. The first signs do not look altogether promising. For while the initial stage of looting looks to be on the wane, public health conditions are worsening. With electrical generators and power stations knocked out by wartime bombing, many Iraqis are now facing their second week without access to clean water. According to UNICEF, the UN children's charity, an estimated 20 children are being admitted to ill-equipped Iraqi hospitals every hour, critically ill with dysentery, diarrhea and other conditions arising from drinking unsafe water.

Meanwhile, many of the international aid agencies able to get the water and power running again refuse to enter Iraq, due to continuing lawlessness. Food is running critically low with perhaps only three weeks of rice and grain left.

Recent large demonstrations by Iraq's Shia Muslim majority make it clear that many Iraqis would like all foreign troops to depart as soon as possible. US plans to create four air bases in the country and establish a long-term military presence there will likely prove deeply unpopular with many.

The recent meeting of various Iraqi 'opposition' groups in the southern town of Nasiriya turned out to be inconclusive at best or, at worst, a charade. Many of the self-styled leaders present had not lived in Iraq for decades and enjoy little or no popular support. Some appear to have engaged in questionable business and financial dealings. To many in the Arab world they look like US puppets. It certainly did not help that Shia leaders boycotted the meetings, as they represent 60% of Iraq's population

The real question now is whether the Bush administration will allow the timely formation of a meaningful interim government that moves quickly towards free elections. If there is no sign of that within the next few months, public unrest could deepen and peaceful demonstrations may be replaced by angry mobs.

previous editorial