A Close US Election After All?

Growing problems in Iraq and a largely jobless economic recovery back home have conspired to make the upcoming presidential elections more of a headache for George Bush than most had anticipated.

What a difference four months makes in politics. Back in May President Bush was riding high in the opinion polls following the dramatic collapse of Saddam's regime in Iraq. Few, if any, opposition Democrats dared voice any criticisms of the administration's policies. Enraged by France's opposition to the war, US consumers rallied behind their president and armed forces, boycotting French products and refusing to travel there.

Four months later, things have changed dramatically. In presenting his case before the UN Security Council in late September, President Bush appeared nervous and less confident. The most recent Gallup poll indicates that just 50% of voters now approve of his leadership, the lowest rating since he came to office in January 2001.

The quality of the competition has also improved. In just ten days of campaigning, former NATO supreme commander General Wesley Clark has already moved to the top of the pack of the Democrats. One recent poll shows him beating Bush in a head-to-head contest.

It's early days, but the signs are not particularly encouraging for the Bush administration. Neither of the two great issues the 2004 election will be fought over - Iraq and the economy - look like successes right now. Only a quick exit from Baghdad and the creation of jobs will likely turn things in Bush's favor again.