France-US rift may be long term

Long after of the war Iraq is over, France and the United States may struggle to regain lost friendship

By Marsha Johnston in Paris

Despite accusations of disloyalty and anti-Americanism by US officials, French president Jacques Chirac is actually the most pro-American French president of the post-war era. In more normal times, his center-right coalition would be a natural ally of the Bush administration.

Following a long chain of bitter arguments and mutual recriminations, however, a growing number of politicians and political analysts in both France and the US believe the current diplomatic row between the two countries may turn into a long-lasting affair.

Guillaume Parmentier, director of the French Center on the United States - a Paris-based independent research foundation - believes much will depend on the evolution of the war itself. "If the war is short, some traces [of this problem] will remain, but will blow over because we need each other," says Parmentier. "If the war goes badly, and is long, however, it will be worse for France, because no one will thank France for being right. That's why Chirac has said he wants a quick end to the war."

Others are less optimistic, especially given the fact that the western alliance has lacked a common enemy since the close of the Cold War over a decade ago.

"Today, the Soviet Union has disappeared and there is no longer that cement that existed through all of the other transatlantic crises," says Dominique Moisi, associate director of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) a government funded think tank.

"The United States has changed since September 11, and this very emotional America now expresses itself via an administration that incarnates nearly everything that Europe rejects. Europe has changed too. It rejects war more than ever, and rejects America too, as expressed by public opinion. This crisis cannot be treated like the others."

Many analysts now regard the current diplomatic impasse as the most serious rift in US-French relations since France withdrew from NATO's military command structure in the mid-1960s and tried to become an independent mediator between Washington and Moscow. Some think things are worse today than ever.

"This crisis is deep and, I believe, lasting," says Pascal Boniface, director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris.

"It is much more serious than 1966 when President de Gaulle demanded the departure of American troops from France. "As long as the Americans refuse to believe that they need the rest of the world and that it is better to convince their allies than to impose their will, we will have a problem," he concludes.

Especially worrying is the stream of bellicose anti-French statements and condemnations by both the Bush administration and the US press. This, believes Boniface, is unparalleled in the entire history of Franco-American relations. It could take long months or even years to heal the raw feelings and lack of trust on both sides.