Turkey's Kurdish dilemma in Iraq

With war raging just across the border, Turkey's military faces historic and dangerous choices

By Doug Vogt in Cizre, Turkey

Kurdish nationalists in Turkey often say that they have no friends but the mountains. But their 16-year long civil war against Turkish government forces has obliged them to abandon even this friendship, leave their mountain villages and relocate to charmless concrete cities and towns. Few have found more than misery, unemployment and the hard stare of Turkish soldiers on patrol.

Today, the war in Turkey is mainly over. Emergency rule has been lifted and the teaching of Kurdish language is now allowed, as are television broadcasts, newspapers and magazines. Pro-Kurdish political parties are tolerated, giving voice to the country's 20 million Kurds for the first time. But with the war in Iraq now raging, this fragile peace hangs in the balance.

Everyone here asks the same question: will the fighting begin again? "Turkish people and Kurdish people do not want to see fresh war on their doorstep," says Sergin Tanzikulu, a Kurdish human-rights lawyer based in Diyarbakir, Turkey's largest Kurdish city. "We (supposedly) live in a democracy, but our relatives living under Iraq's dictatorship are more free than we are."

The war in Iraq will probably result in a larger and more powerful role for Iraq's Kurds. Many Turks, especially within the military, view this prospect with deep apprehension. The main worry is that the new freedom and self-rule enjoyed by Iraqi Kurds could inspire their ethnic cousins in Turkey to demand greater rights and opportunities. The Turkish military establishment sees itself as the country's main stabilizing force. Despite recent democratic reforms, the military continues to operate with impunity and answers only to itself.

Many Turks hope that the election of the moderate Islamic AK Party last year and its acceptance by the military are signs of a growing political maturity which may finally lead to a loosening of the military's grip on power. Unfortunately, the war in Iraq could not have come at a worse time for Turkey's newfound democratic confidence. When massive anti-war protests erupted in Turkish cities, citizens and politicians alike were surprised that the army did not involve itself.

When the Bush administration reportedly offered up to $30 billion in aid in exchange for Turkish support for the war effort, citizens were again surprised to see their government stand fast and refuse to provide access to US troops. The Turks have since paid for their independent stand, with both the local stock market and currency subsequently falling to new lows.

Despite US pressure and economic consequences, Turkish interests will likely best be served by avoiding any territorial adventure inside Iraq. The safest option would be to establish a security zone along the Iraqi border and stay out of the fighting. Such a zone can insure that weapons are not smuggled into the country by extreme Kurdish elements seeking opportunity amid the chaos. If new weapons are allowed to enter the country, then the newfound peace and democratic reforms could be quickly nullified.

What analysts fear most is that the Turkish military could be tempted to re-conquer old Ottoman lands, including the Kirkuk oil fields in what is now Kurdish Iraq. This is the doomsday scenario that could plunge the region into generalized warfare.

If Turkey can avoid involvement in the current war, then the government could reap economic benefits when the rebuilding of Iraq begins. This could help Turkish businesses recoup losses suffered since UN sanctions were imposed on neighboring Iraq in 1990. But the country will suffer if the Turkish military decides to act with a heavy hand against the fledgling Kurdish democracy in Iraq. The war on Iraq has exposed the military to new temptations. The coming weeks will test both the stability and durability of Turkey's emerging democratic legacy.